An impossible task

 

I've said it for weeks now, but as the congressional elections loom just a few days away, it seems worth repeating-- beating incumbent Chris Smith is an impossible task.

With just under a week left to elections, the campaign in the 4^th district of New Jersey has the same atmosphere it did since the primary in early June. Unlike most states, advertisements aren't splashed all over the television and campaign signs don't litter front lawns. It appears that Howard Kleinhendler never threw himself whole heartedly in to this race, he ran uncontested in the primary and probably would have lost if he had a challenger.

Paul S. Herrnson talks about election success in the ninth chapter of his book, Congressional Elections, and how difficult it is for a challenger to beat out an incumbent.

"The typical House challenger is in a position similar to that of a novice athlete pitted against a world-class sprinter." This metaphor seems written specifically for the race between Smith and Kleinhendler. While Smith has around 20 years of experience in office, Kleinhendler is essentially a nobody, with consequently no chance of winning.

"Most challengers begin the general election at a disadvantage. Lacking a broad base of support, these candidates must build one. Challengers need to mount aggressive campaigns to become visible, build name recognition, give voters reasons to support them, and overcome the initial advantages of their opponents," Herrnson said. But Kleinhendler never did this; most voters don't even his name, let alone a good reason to vote for him.

That's not to say that Kleinhendler isn't a skilled politician that could do some good if he was ever elected to office, but as Herrnson said, "… most House challengers lose because the odds are so heavily stacked against them" not because they aren't qualified.

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The Countdown to Elections

   I recently stumbled upon a youtube video of a political campaign ad that Howard Kleinhendler created. I couldn't help but be struck by how low budget it looked, but I shouldn't have been surprised given the fact that Kleinhendler raised about only $93,000 during the 2010, and reportedly only has around $7,000 left for use. Kleinhendler is a long shot in this election and this advertisement shows that he does not have the political savvy of other candidates, such as Chris Smith.

    Kleinhendler start's out his video by going over who he is and three main points that would be the primary focus of his agenda if elected. Although this seems good in theory, in reality, Kleinhendler should be focused on destroying Smith's reputation than building his own. Paul S. Herrnson points out in Congressional Elections: Campaigning at Home and in Washington that negative advertising is a key component in the success of challengers against incumbents because it helps voters think twice about casting a vote for their incumbent.

    After introducing himself, Kleinhendler than turns to Smith. The only negative thing that he can say is that Smith has lost it after spending so much time in Congress. The video is not effective in hurting Smith in any way- it's rather confusing and the viewer is not quiet sure what to take away from it.

    Kleinhendler should take some points from other candidates negative ads and make something with a little punch next time if he wants to steal a few votes away from Smith.

Who votes and why?

In the 7^th edition of The Politics of Congressional Elections, by Gary C. Jacobson, the issue of congressional voters is discussed. This chapter primarily focuses on why some people vote in elections and why others don’t. It than shifts to why people vote the way they do; what candidates do or what social norms causes them to sway one way or the other.

Jacobson thinks that voter turnout correlates to wealth and education. In New Jersey the average income is estimated at around $50,000, while the national income is estimated at a lower average of $46,323. Despite the fact that the 4^th district is comprised of some of the wealthiest counties in New Jersey, congressional election voter turnout has been traditionally low.

This would without a doubt be attributed to the fact that for the last several years, the congressional election between Smith and whoever his opponent is during the time, has been highly uncompetitive. Because Smith usually wins by the overwhelming majority, voters believe that their vote will not make a difference one way or another.

Jacobson would say that Smith wins by such a majority because he is the incumbent. In this chapter he says that the incumbent is more likely to be favored mainly because of name recognition. 

Besides the fact the Smith is an incumbent, his opponent Howard Kleinhendler, has a lot of demographical obstacles standing in his way. For one, Fort Dix, Lakehurst Naval Base, and McGuire Air Station are all located within the 4^th district. Although not always the case, military members, and family members and friends of military tend to be more conservative and lean towards Republican views.

This could prove to be a main reason why a Republican has been in office for the past 30 years.

All of these things, income, location and name recognition, play a large roll in who gets elected. 

The question is...

How much do you really know about Chris Smith. Yes, he has been representing the 4^th Congressional District of New Jersey for the past 30 years, but do you really know what he stands for, what he believes?

That seems to be Smith’s opponent, Howard Kleinhendler’s goal as the November elections near- expose some of Smith’s opinions that will make almost anybody shake their head in disbelief.

In an interview with New Jersey Jewish News back in September, Kleinhendler discussed Smith’s controversial opinion that any kind of birth control (including the pill) should be illegal. He told NJ Jewish News that Smith was “totally off-the-charts in trying to criminalize birth control, so much so that even in his human rights work he has opposed HIV/AIDS programs in Africa because they include distribution of condoms. That is a terrible mistake.”

After reading that (and doing a little research of my own just to make sure this was accurate) I regret every interning for Christopher Smith.

As someone who recently visited several countries in Africa and seen first hand the destruction that HIV/AIDS has caused, it’s disgusting to me that Smith would argue that condom use is not affective or moral.

But what does that say about me that I didn’t know, despite interning for him, that this is the way Smith thought, until after I read the article in NJ Jewish News? How many other people in the district don’t know this about the man they have continued to vote into office?

Kleinhendler’s chance of defeating Smith may be slim, but his campaign strategy is on point- make Smith look bad. And at least for one voter come November, he did a good job.

What PACs Support Smith?

Political Action Committees are private groups that donate over $1,000 to help get certain politicians elected or to advance certain issues. Congressman Chris Smith knows all about PACs.

According to Opensecrets.org, Smith has received nearly $169,125 in contributions from PACs. That is nearly 31% of his funds.

The biggest PAC contribution came from Right to Life, a pro-life organization who aims to stop abortion. OpenSecrets reports that they contributed $11,700 to Smith for the 2010 campaign.

Given Smith’s extreme anti-abortion, pro-life agenda, it does not really come as a surprise that he is supported by Right to Life. In fact, it seems that for the past 7 elections, Right to Life has been one of the major contributors to Smith’s campaigns.

Smith also has received expenditures from several smaller organizations aimed around the Judeo-Christian view. Family Research Council is one of them. They donated $3,000 to Smith’s 2010 campaign.

The rest of the top five contributors according to OpenSecrets are Operating Engineering Union at $10,000, Teamsters Union at $10,000, Laborers Union at $10,000, and finally the Carpenters & Joiners Union also at $10,000.

One of the most pressing issues in New Jersey is the educational system and teaching benefits and jobs. I found it interesting that the Teachers Union PAC, which is over 200,000 members strong, refused to endorse either Smith, or his opponent Howard Kleinhendler.

Smith's overall campaign funds are almost half of the average of other incumbents. Smith is a dominate candidate, and doesn't seem to think that he has much competition in the 2010 election. But if Smith is destined for an easy win, why do PACs still donate upwards of $10,000?

I think that the endorsement of a PAC, or the lack of an endorsement of a PAC, speaks volumes about a candidate and what they stand for.