I've said it for weeks now, but as the congressional elections loom just a few days away, it seems worth repeating-- beating incumbent Chris Smith is an impossible task.
With just under a week left to elections, the campaign in the 4th district of New Jersey has the same atmosphere it did since the primary in early June. Unlike most states, advertisements aren't splashed all over the television and campaign signs don't litter front lawns. It appears that Howard Kleinhendler never threw himself whole heartedly in to this race, he ran uncontested in the primary and probably would have lost if he had a challenger.
Paul S. Herrnson talks about election success in the ninth chapter of his book, Congressional Elections, and how difficult it is for a challenger to beat out an incumbent.
"The typical House challenger is in a position similar to that of a novice athlete pitted against a world-class sprinter." This metaphor seems written specifically for the race between Smith and Kleinhendler. While Smith has around 20 years of experience in office, Kleinhendler is essentially a nobody, with consequently no chance of winning.
"Most challengers begin the general election at a disadvantage. Lacking a broad base of support, these candidates must build one. Challengers need to mount aggressive campaigns to become visible, build name recognition, give voters reasons to support them, and overcome the initial advantages of their opponents," Herrnson said. But Kleinhendler never did this; most voters don't even his name, let alone a good reason to vote for him.
That's not to say that Kleinhendler isn't a skilled politician that could do some good if he was ever elected to office, but as Herrnson said, "… most House challengers lose because the odds are so heavily stacked against them" not because they aren't qualified.
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